From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Amid the widespread uncertainty regarding the American military actions on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday saw its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The move to assault another independent nation and abduct its leader – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may regret it if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.