It was two months ago when the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him for missing a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a symptom or the reason of the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. As the England international curled home his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa continued to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
This is a particularly tough proposition to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have piled up.
Per Opta, twice all season has the side had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa look strangely fragile – but currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for their talisman to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents had more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa must confront in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still find their top level.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential England player.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner stood in front of the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
